PSU banks have just engineered a fundamental turnaround once deemed impossible, dragging net non-performing assets (NPAs) down to historic lows that match or beat their private sector peers. Yet, despite state-owned lenders hitting record profit milestones, market insiders are heavily shifting preference toward leading private sector banks. As the market transitions into a tougher macroeconomic environment marked by global uncertainty and intensifying deposit pressures, analysts caution that flocking to cheaper PSU stocks solely for their low valuations could backfire, pointing instead to larger private banks as the more compelling risk-reward play for FY27.

Citing superior earnings compounding potential and more attractive risk-reward dynamics at current valuations, analysts are explicitly tilting toward larger private sector banks.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, highlights this tactical preference by stating that while the favorable operating momentum is likely to continue because they do not see any significant near-term fundamental headwinds, they currently prefer leading private sector banks since they offer a more attractive risk-reward profile at current valuations.

The record books

By every financial metric, FY26 was a watershed year for government-owned banks. Finance Ministry data shows aggregate PSU bank net profit rose 11.1% year-on-year to a historic high of ₹1.98 lakh crore, the fourth straight year of aggregate profitability for the sector. Gross advances grew 15.7% to ₹127 lakh crore, while aggregate deposits climbed 10.6% to ₹156.3 lakh crore, reflecting what the ministry described as continued depositor confidence and strong resource mobilisation.Asset quality, once the sector’s Achilles heel, has been transformed. The gross NPA ratio fell to 1.93% as of March 31, 2026, and the net NPA ratio to 0.39%, levels that now match or beat several private sector peers. Every single PSB maintained a provisioning coverage ratio above 90%. Fresh slippages continued to decline, with the slippage ratio at 0.7% for FY26, and total recoveries, including from written-off accounts, reached ₹86,971 crore.

What drove FY26 and why it may not repeat

Chouhan identifies two structural tailwinds that powered last year’s performance. First, PSU banks gained loan market share from private sector peers because they operated with lower credit-deposit ratios at a time when deposit growth was a key industry-wide constraint, giving them the balance sheet flexibility to grow their loan books faster. Second, substantial recoveries from legacy stressed assets provided a meaningful boost to profitability that supported both earnings growth and valuation re-rating across several PSU bank stocks.

But both tailwinds are now largely played out. There simply isn’t as much legacy stress left to recover from, and the deposit-ratio advantage has narrowed. “While the favourable operating momentum is likely to continue, as we do not see any significant near-term fundamental headwinds, we currently prefer leading private sector banks,” Chouhan says.

The earnings divergence that matters most

Motilal Oswal’s banking team lays out the starkest version of the divergence case. Over FY26–28, they project private banks to deliver earnings at roughly a 21% CAGR against just 8% for PSU banks, a gap of more than 2.5 times. Net interest income is expected to follow a similar split, with private banks delivering around a 17% CAGR against 13% for state-owned lenders. For the full banking coverage universe, Motilal Oswal estimates a 15% earnings CAGR over the period, modestly ahead of consensus expectations of 14%. Their top picks for the cycle: ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, and AU Small Finance Bank. SBI is the only PSU bank to make the cut.
Among private banks, Motilal Oswal expects mid-sized players to outperform on earnings, supported by improving net interest margins, easing stress in unsecured portfolios, and relatively stable credit costs driven by better asset quality trends.

The NIM problem

Elara Securities’ Prakhar Agarwal flags one of the sector’s most pressing structural concerns heading into FY27: the erosion of low-cost current and savings account deposits. “Sustained pressure points on low-cost deposits mean incremental growth will be funded by retail term and wholesale deposits, which will have pressure points on spreads,” he says. Some banks have already raised deposit rates, and incremental spreads are narrowing.

Agarwal argues that FY27 will favour banks with strong liability franchises and robust balance sheets. Large private banks with mid-teen returns on equity are best positioned to compound earnings even without a valuation re-rating. For smaller, less differentiated lenders, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, margin compression, and tighter deposit competition could prove a difficult test. “Given near-term uncertainty, we prefer larger private banks with mid-teen ROE, justifying a case for earnings compounding if not for valuation re-rating,” he says.

Axis Direct’s Dnyanada Vaidya stops short of writing off the PSU bank space entirely. Most larger government-owned banks have maintained a 1% return on assets, a threshold that has historically supported strong stock performance, and the asset quality outlook remains constructive with no visible headwinds to credit costs. “Over the medium term, we expect PSU banks to replicate the performance of larger private banks on credit growth, while maintaining stable loan-to-deposit ratios,” she says.

But she flags the same NIM headwind: with the cost of funds having bottomed and the Reserve Bank’s rate-cut cycle underway, margin pressure is likely to persist near-term. Banks will need to reprice select lending segments to offset the squeeze, a process that takes time and carries execution risk. Her preference within the PSU space: SBI, and SBI alone.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)